Russia's 'Humanitarian' Invasion of Ukraine

     It is no longer a question whether Russia is waging war against Ukraine; instead it is now merely a question about the extent of direct Russian military involvement. In today’s New York Times, a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) spokeswoman, Oana Lungescu, was quoted as saying that not only had Ukrainian rebels received direct material support from the Russian military, but also that there have been reports of active duty Russian military support “including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in Eastern Ukraine,”. 

     The reports of Russian military units operating in eastern Ukraine come at the same time a Russian so-called “humanitarian convoy” illegally bearing the flags of the International Committee of the Red Cross has crossed into Ukrainian territory, in what the Ukrainian government has called a pretext for invasion. During the last few weeks, Russian military forces have been seen building up along the border with Ukraine. This military buildup has not deterred President Poroshenko of Ukraine from aggressively attacking and surrounding the final rebel redoubts of Donetsk and Lugansk, in what they term an “Anti Terror Operation” (ATO).

     The crisis in Ukraine started back in January, when then-President Victor Yanukovich spurned a planned economic partnership with the European Union, and instead accepted a Russian bailout on terms favorable to Moscow. People then took to the streets and the Maidan demanding that President Yanukovich back out of the Russian trade agreement, and instead, keep his former promise and sign the EU trade agreement. The protests culminated with the ouster of Yanukovich, who fled to Russia and was replaced by newly-elected President Poroshenko. The Russian trade agreement would have made Ukraine a member of the Eurasian Customs Union that has been a pet-project of Russian President Vladimir Putin. So far, the only members of the ECU beside Russia are Kazakhstan, and Belarus.

     With Poroshenko and Putin set to meet on Tuesday, it may be that the military buildup and incursions into eastern Ukraine are just Putin’s last-ditch effort to gain some leverage over Poroshenko concerning the eastern part of the country, which, for Russia, is a major economic/military asset. Indeed, fully one third of Russia’s military armaments are produced by factories in eastern Ukraine. Is this current escalation a ploy for leverage, or the beginnings of something larger and more ominous? Only time will tell.